Did you absolutely embarrass yourself in your family March Madness bracket challenge? Did your nearly deaf grandmother beat you by picking her favorite colors? Well say goodbye to the embarrassment of losing to someone with dentures and hello to a second chance at chance.
The D1A playoffs are just days away from kickoff! The Try Times is sponsoring a bracket challenge, with a prize for the best bracket! Scroll to the bottom for instructions on the bracket challenge.
In this article, I will dive into my bracket and the reasoning behind my picks. Hopefully, this will be helpful as you fill out your brackets. If you're reading this and you don't like what you read, please go prove me wrong. There's nothing more I'd love to see than some upsets.
West Round of 16:
Okay, let's start with the West. All signs point to the Gaels as the favorites in the West. They were undefeated in spring play and notched wins against every opponent on their side of the bracket. St. Mary's is definitely the only team that has taken the field once already against every team. This gives them an advantage from a film and experience standpoint. The Gaels are a momentum-based team. They feed off the mistakes and weaknesses of their opponents. So going into the playoffs, knowing through first-hand experience that they can beat all these teams, makes them a serious contender.
I think GCU will have a tough time with SMC, but I never say never. The Lopes would have to play their best rugby of the year, perhaps even in program history, to beat the Gaels. It's not impossible, but it is improbable.
I was a little torn between Cal and Cal Poly. I would say that Cal Poly has had their best season in recent memory. Cal has probably had their worst season in recent memory but can never be counted out come playoffs. The experience of the coaching staff and their depth gives them an advantage over Cal Poly. But then again, I didn't think Army had any shot at beating Cal and they did. If the Cal that lost to Army and BYU shows up this weekend, it could be a rough day for the Bears. But ultimately, I expect Cal to win this one.
I picked BYU over UCLA. UCLA has had a decent season but has folded in some big matchups. They got smoked by Cal earlier this year who BYU beat. UCLA is a well-coached program but perhaps not as experienced as this BYU side. BYU has had moments of brilliance this year, a huge win over Cal, and some agonizingly close losses to Central Washington and Lindenwood. But they've also had some serious dips in their level of play including a three-game losing streak in the spring. If BYU can execute the way they did in Strawberry Canyon, they have the potential to make a serious run.
The Central vs. Arizona matchup will be the closest game in the west. Their regular season matchup in Tuscon was a nail-biter, CWU coming out on top. Central has had a roller coaster of a season. They lost to Trinity Western early on, they lost to Lindenwood, St. Mary's, and nearly Arizona. But they also notched a win against BYU, Cal Poly, and UCLA. They even got revenge on Trinity Western to cap off their regular season. Arizona hasn't had a great year, but their biggest win of the season came against Army last week. So they will be looking to ride the momentum of that win into this matchup. Arizona is the kind of team that just looks to get under your skin, starting with their scrumhalf. If they can get under Central's skin, and capitalize on Central's mistakes, they could pull off an upset. In the end, I'm calling this one in favor of Central. I think Central is more consistent and the home-field advantage will be a factor. I've personally played a handful of matches on that wind tunnel of a field. Central Washington does a great job of using the wind to their advantage.
East Round of 16:
This year really is anybody's year. Nobody really came out on top in the east, but Navy was awarded the one seed. Navy nearly had a perfect season but dropped a game to a Cal team, who lost to BYU and Army. Navy also nearly lost to Army in the fall. In this first-round matchup, I don't foresee them having an issue with Mary Washinton. No disrespect to Mary Washington, but Navy has already beaten better opponents than them this season. I don't expect a blowout, but I don't think it'll be that close
This was one of the toughest picks of the bracket for me. Even though Davenport just beat Arkansas State, I'm going to have to go with the Red Wolves. Ark State this season has really had some exciting wins. They beat Davenport in the fall and took down Lindenwood in the spring. They lost a pretty close one to Life as well. Davenport could definitely take this one though. They nearly beat Lindenwood in the fall and recently took down Ark State. But in the end, I think Ark State will win what has become basically a three-game series between the two clubs.
Lindenwood should beat Mt. St. Mary's. The Lions have had some really positive results this year. They beat BYU, Davenport twice, and Central Washington. But they lost to Life and Arkansas State. They have been inconsistent at times, but I think they will rise to the challenge and win this win. Mt. St. Mary's has been pretty inconsistent this season and has only played a handful of matches this spring. So I cast my lot with the Lions.
Finally, I'm picking Life over Army. Army really surprised me this spring with a win over Cal. Their physicality impressed me. Of course, anyone who watched the game knows it was played in a swamp which clearly favored the Black Knights. But maybe Army will surprise me again. They are coming off a disappointing loss to Arizona so we will see if they can turn things around. Life on the other hand has had an impressive spring season. They did lose to Navy in the fall but since then they've beaten Arkansas State, Lindenwood, and BYU. Life's entire squad has a great rugby IQ. I think there are other teams out there with better athletes but you can tell the Running Eagles know the game well. In their most recent win over BYU, their rugby IQ was really what led to a second-half onslaught of points. BYU was penalized 25 times and Life made them pay. I think the Running Eagles are one of the most dangerous teams in the East. They are very consistent and rarely make mistakes. They are also rock solid in the set piece.
West Quarterfinals:
Cal vs. St. Mary's- If these two teams grace us with their presence in the quarter-finals I predict the Gaels will come out on top. I also think it will be one of the most exciting games of the year. St. Mary's will have the home-field advantage, which is huge in a rivalry matchup. Both teams boast hostile crowds. St. Mary's has already beaten Cal this year, and their backline has heaps of experience. The Storti brothers, Waquavasi, and Besag are some of the best backs in the country and are incredibly experienced. As long as the Gaels play a clean game they should triumph. However, this rivalry is completely unpredictable. When it comes to Cal vs. St. Mary's, it really is anyone's game. I would not be surprised to see the Bears pull off the upset here.
Central vs. BYU- This matchup may not be as storied or intense as Cal and St. Mary's, but it's definitely becoming a rivalry. Last season the Cougars beat the Wildcats twice, ending their season in the quarterfinals. But this year Central launched a gutsy second-half comeback to shock BYU. Again the boys in Ellensburg know how to use the wind to their advantage and will look to put the ball to boot against BYU. Life took advantage of BYU's inexperienced back three in their matchup, even scoring a try off a muffed box kick. BYU has more firepower in their backline with some veteran players. Parry, Semu, Campbell, and Hammer are all multi-year starters for BYU and electric athletes. They thrive off of half gaps and offloads. If they can execute their attack, I think BYU will win this one. If they lose the territory battle and can't field the kicks properly, CWU could very likely advance. Ultimately, I think BYU will pull off the win.
East Quarterfinals:
Navy vs. Arkansas State- This should be a close matchup. It's a bold prediction, but I think Ark State will advance to the semi-finals. Navy hasn't played many high-profile matchups this spring and had a disappointing loss to Cal. Ark State is definitely on the rise and has notched some significant wins this spring. With the length of the D1A season, it's all about peaking at the right time. I think Arkansas State is peaking and for that reason, I think they'll pull off the upset.
Lindenwood vs. Life- I think Life will beat Lindenwood. The Running Eagles have already beaten the Lions once. Life has executed so well this spring season and really are peaking. I think they match up well with the Lions but have the upper hand in the kicking game. Both teams are committed to the kicking game, but Life has a better kick chase and puts a lot of pressure on their opponents. Lindenwood could very well win this one though. They have had some strong performances this season. It all depends on which Lindenwood squad shows up to play.
West Semifinals:
BYU vs. St. Mary's- This is a tough matchup for me to call. As a BYU alumni, I am obviously biased. So for validity's sake, I will call St. Mary's the victor of this matchup. Both teams have veteran backlines who have played against each other for years. In the last six seasons, BYU has come painfully close to beating the Gaels but hasn't been able to. St. Mary's is on something like a 14-game winning streak against the Cougars. Will BYU get the monkey off their back and beat the Gaels? Or will St. Mary's continue their dominance in that matchup? St. Mary's handily beat BYU this year, but BYU and St. Mary's always seem to slug it out when it really counts. I could see this one going to extra time.
East Semifinals:
Arkansas State vs. Life- I think Life will win this one. I think I've said enough about Life, but I think they are more consistent than Ark State. Ark State is tough on defense but is not as sharp in the kicking game as the Running Eagles. Ark State could continue to surprise me and make a Cinderella run to the final, but the relentlessness of Life should put them through to the finals.
National Championship:
St. Mary's vs. Life?- This could very likely be our D1A final. Both these teams have had a fantastic season and are made up of great rugby players. I'm confident that a handful of the players in this match will be on MLR rosters in the coming seasons. That being said, I'd have to pick St. Mary's College to win. The Gaels are undefeated, they have a veteran backline, and they are sharp under the high ball. The Gaels wings are still a bit inexperienced but Mario Storti has really done a great job fielding kicks this season. His brother also does a good job kicking from hand. Ultimately, I think that their attack is just more dynamic than Life. Life's attacking opportunities really hinge on mistakes in the kicking game and penalties. But the Gaels, have been exceptional in both areas this season. If they can limit their mistakes, they should be crowned national champions.
In addition, St. Mary's defense is one of the most frustrating defenses in the country. Coach O'Brien must really emphasize line speed because they are in your face the second you catch the ball. I think the Running Eagles will be forced to kick away a lot of possession which will favor St. Mary's. But I definitely wouldn't count Life out. They are physical and smart rugby players. If they can win the territory battle and the penalty count, they could be champs. But, in the end, I think it will be the Gaels.
Best of luck to all the teams taking the pitch this post season. It's been an incredibly exciting regular season to follow and report on.
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